I hereby offer to sell for $.10 each up to 1000 prediction certificates, each of which contains the following promise: "The bearer of this certificate is entitled to receive $1.00 from Tom W. Bell if, before January 1, 2010, a federal or state court in the United States holds that a prediction exchange fitting the definition set forth in [this article] violates state or federal gambling laws or falls within the jurisdiction of the SEC or CFTC." The certificates will contain some additional fine print, naturally. That promise captures the heart of my prediction, however. It moreover shows that I am willing to risk $1000 on my claim that, all told, prediction markets should not be illegal under U.S. law. More exactly, my asking price shows that I think it only 10% likely that my prediction errs.
So, dear readers and fellow prediction market geeks, what do you think of that? Yes, I know it's typically nutty; I mean only to ask if this admittedly rough proxy for a real prediction market contains some fatal flaw. Also, you may have some ideas about what I need to put in the fine print. I certainly to discuss, in a footnote, the need to name judges, the choice of law provision, the fact that I can delegate my duty. I may even include a sample certificate. I doubt I can easily go as far as Robin Hanson did, so many years ago, in his Extropy article on prediction markets. He included, in each hardcopy, a real coupon!