tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3829599.post112181023926148147..comments2024-01-28T00:20:40.933-08:00Comments on Agoraphilia: It's All Markety and StuffUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3829599.post-1122042399817327932005-07-22T07:26:00.000-07:002005-07-22T07:26:00.000-07:00Hi there,Steve (the first commentator) is spot on ...Hi there,<BR/><BR/>Steve (the first commentator) is spot on when it comes to bookmakers. However, the SCOTUS futures markets at TradeSports/InTrade were organized by a betting echange, not a bookmaker. These event-driven futures exchanges give true odds, providing that traders have open access to information ---which was not the case.<BR/><BR/>http://www.chrisfmasse.com/3/3/predictionmarkets/<BR/><BR/>Best regards,<BR/><BR/>Chris. F. MasseAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3829599.post-1121929325399180862005-07-21T00:02:00.000-07:002005-07-21T00:02:00.000-07:00It's true that the odds which "balance the bets" m...It's true that the odds which "balance the bets" may differ from the "true" odds. However, an expected-profit-maximizing bettor can take advantage of this discrepancy. If Team A's fans are too optimistic about their team, driving the odds down, then I can get a positive expected return by betting against Team A. Assuming that at least <I>some</I> (not necessarily all) of the bettors are rational, the "balance the bets" odds should reveal the true odds.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3829599.post-1121895980045730182005-07-20T14:46:00.000-07:002005-07-20T14:46:00.000-07:00Hm, interesting. I understand that when oddsmakers...Hm, interesting. I understand that when oddsmakers aim to balance bets that they do sacrifice the possibility of higher gains for surer gains. Isn't the idea, though, that in the long run this is better for the oddsmakers (in terms of preventing them from going bankrupt, which ensure profits in the long term)?Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04627871863179036349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3829599.post-1121865614509552232005-07-20T06:20:00.000-07:002005-07-20T06:20:00.000-07:00Here's an interesting AP article ("interesting", "...Here's an interesting AP article ("interesting", "AP", contracdictory terms?) on Hurricane futures markets.<BR/>http://www.newsday.com/news/science/wire/sns-ap-hurricane-futures-market,0,3492355.story?coll=sns-ap-science-headlinesHosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16058974133237693056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3829599.post-1121843744825538392005-07-20T00:15:00.000-07:002005-07-20T00:15:00.000-07:00I think you're right on, Glen. It's perhaps easier...I think you're right on, Glen. It's perhaps easier to think about it this way: When people in Vegas are setting their odds, they rarely set them based upon what they think the results will be. Rather, they do their best to ensure that they will <I>make the most money.</I><BR/><BR/>For instance, let's say there are 2 teams, Team A and Team B. Team A's fans tend to be really optimistic about their team, while Team B's fans are less so. Oddsmakers are going to set the odds as far in favor of Team B as possible, <I>regardless of what they think the real result will be</I> so that they get as close as possible to the same number of bets on either side. That's why the odds for 2 teams will often be different if it's in one of the team's hometowns (hometown fans are generally more optimistic about their teams' chances than reality would dictate).<BR/><BR/>Consequentially, while betting sites may provide a partially strong correlation to actual outcomes, it's going to be tainted by the real purpose of betting sites: to make money, not to predict the future.Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04627871863179036349noreply@blogger.com